June 8, 2023
The U.S. solar trade put in 6.1 gigawatts (GW) of solar capability and — get used to this phrase over the subsequent decade — had its finest first quarter in historical past, in keeping with the US Solar Market Insight Q2 2023 report launched right this moment by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie. The report quarter was pushed largely by provide chain challenges abating and delayed solar tasks shifting ahead.
Due partly to the sturdy first quarter numbers and a surge in demand from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Wood Mackenzie expects the solar market to triple in measurement over the subsequent 5 years, bringing complete put in solar capability to 378 GW by 2028.
The utility-scale market rebounded from a troublesome 2022 with a robust first quarter and a report 3.8 GW of put in solar capability. This quarter, extra module importers had been in a position to fulfill the documentation necessities beneath the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA). This enabled extra solar tools to make it to mission websites and allowed the trade to construct out its lengthy pipeline of delayed tasks.
Despite rising rates of interest and financial headwinds inflicting buyer hesitancy, the residential section put in 1.6 GW of solar capability in Q1 2023, a 30% improve from Q1 final 12 months. The residential market section is on observe so as to add 36 GW of solar over the subsequent 5 years, rising at a median annual charge of 6%.
The business market additionally had a report first quarter, with 391 MW put in, placing the section on observe for 12% progress in 2023.
Meanwhile, the neighborhood solar section put in 212 MW, a 13% lower from Q1 2022 due largely to ongoing interconnection challenges.
By far, Florida was the highest solar state in Q1 2023 due to 1.46 GW of utility-scale solar installations. Florida put in over 70% extra solar capability in Q1 than the subsequent highest state, California.
Due partly to these installations, the solar trade accounted for 54% of all new electricity-generating capability added to the grid in Q1.
Manufacturing additionally on the rise
The IRA has additionally spurred a surge of latest manufacturing bulletins, with home module capability anticipated to rise from fewer than 9 GW right this moment to greater than 60 GW by 2026. At least 16 GW of module manufacturing amenities are beneath development as of the top of Q1 2023.
While the IRA has already catalyzed main investments in solar manufacturing and deployment, challenges stay with the implementation steering for the home content material adder credit within the near-term.
Because the principles to adjust to the home content material adder credit score are complicated and there’s presently no crystalline silicon solar cell manufacturing capability within the United States, it may take just a few years earlier than the credit score could be extensively used. The guidelines additionally fail to supply particular instructions for the residential market, leaving this market section with out readability.
“The US solar industry is slowly starting to see supply chain relief,” mentioned Michelle Davis, head of worldwide solar at Wood Mackenzie and lead writer of the report. “At the same time, qualifying for the domestic content adder will be a very complex process for solar project developers. Even once crystalline silicon cell manufacturing is established, many other components will need to be produced domestically before projects can qualify.”
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Tags: market analysis