Australia’s uptake of rooftop solar is likely one of the highest on the earth with greater than 30% of free-standing households throughout the nation now fitted with a PV system however the Clean Energy Regulator has revealed a “steep decline” within the variety of installations in early 2022 with deteriorating economics enjoying a serious half.
June 13, 2022
After 5 consecutive years of progress, Australia’s rooftop solar PV market skilled a drop-off within the first quarter of 2022 with the Clean Energy Regulator (CER) revealing the put in capability in Q1 this yr is 561MW, nicely under the 782MW rolled out in the identical interval final yr.
Figures revealed by the CER in its newest Quarterly Carbon Market Report present an estimated 68,250 rooftop solar methods with a median system measurement of 8.2kW have been put in within the first quarter of 2022, a 31% discount on the almost 99,000 methods put in in Q1 2021.
The downturn follows 5 years of consecutive progress from 2016 the place the annual added capability of rooftop solar averaged 35% yr on yr progress, from 750MW to a file 3.2GW in 2021.
While there was a slowdown within the roll out of rooftop solar, CER chair David Parker mentioned if the present month-to-month set up charge continues put in capability in 2022 will nonetheless exceed greater than 2GW.
“We estimate added installed rooftop solar capacity in 2022 will be about 2.3GW. This is still the third highest annual capacity ever and is higher than pre-pandemic installation rates,” he mentioned.
<img data-attachment-id="74445" src="https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2022/06/13/regulator-reveals-rooftop-solar-installation-rate-on-the-slide/small-scale-graph/" data-orig-file="https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2022/06/small-scale-graph.jpg" data-orig-size="745,377" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit score":"David","digicam":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1655068888","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="small-scale graph" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="
Small-scale solar PV installations and put in capability, 2010 to 2022.
” data-medium-file=”https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2022/06/small-scale-graph-600×304.jpg” data-large-file=”https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2022/06/small-scale-graph.jpg” loading=”lazy” class=”size-medium wp-image-74445″ alt=”” width=”600″ height=”304″ srcset=”https://2dvriazy5as2cpf171km7oj1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2022/06/small-scale-graph-600×304.jpg 600w, https://2dvriazy5as2cpf171km7oj1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2022/06/small-scale-graph.jpg 745w” sizes=”(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px”/>Small-scale solar PV installations and put in capability, 2010 to 2022.
Image: CER
Parker mentioned it had at all times been anticipated the uptake of rooftop solar would finally gradual, attributing the decline in installations to the COVID-19 pandemic, throughout which worldwide borders have been closed and plenty of Australians had introduced ahead their funding in rooftop solar as discretionary spending in different areas was diminished.
“The decline this year is in line with the decline in home improvements spending which boomed during the first two years of the pandemic,” he mentioned.
The CER mentioned decrease feed-in tariffs for households from energy retailers, considerations about future will increase in rates of interest and cost-of-living pressures have been different causes given for the slowdown of rooftop solar installations.
But with power costs hovering, the CER mentioned the downturn could possibly be short-lived as those that don’t have solar swap to the renewable energy to slash their power payments.
“If the prevailing narrative becomes that increasing wholesale prices are flowing through to increased electricity bills, then that may become a consumer consideration that moves the sector back to growth,” the regulator mentioned.
While the small-scale sector has witnessed a downturn, the large-scale sector continues to develop strongly with funding in new wind and solar tasks trending up.
<img data-attachment-id="74446" src="https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2022/06/13/regulator-reveals-rooftop-solar-installation-rate-on-the-slide/installs-and-system-size/" data-orig-file="https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2022/06/installs-and-system-size.jpg" data-orig-size="682,400" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit score":"David","digicam":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"1655068967","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="installs and system size" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="
Small-scale solar PV variety of installations and common system measurement, Q1 2016 to Q1 2022.
” data-medium-file=”https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2022/06/installs-and-system-size-600×352.jpg” data-large-file=”https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2022/06/installs-and-system-size.jpg” loading=”lazy” class=”size-medium wp-image-74446″ alt=”” width=”600″ height=”352″ srcset=”https://2dvriazy5as2cpf171km7oj1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2022/06/installs-and-system-size-600×352.jpg 600w, https://2dvriazy5as2cpf171km7oj1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2022/06/installs-and-system-size.jpg 682w” sizes=”(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px”/>Small-scale solar PV variety of installations and common system measurement, Q1 2016 to Q1 2022.
Image: CER
Parker mentioned the primary quarter of 2022 was the third consecutive quarter with 1.3GW of utility scale wind and solar tasks reached closing funding determination (FID).
“Achieving more than 3GW of new projects reaching FID in the 2022 calendar year cannot be ruled out,” he mentioned.
If that eventuates, it is going to be the third consecutive yr the place FID capability has elevated year-on-year.
The regulator urged that its estimate of 3GW capability reaching FID on this calendar yr might nicely be conservative with rising wholesale electrical energy costs prone to set off a surge in large-scale renewables business funding.
The CER’s newest Market Report additionally confirmed there have been file ranges of cancellations of carbon certificates and models within the first quarter of the yr.
Parker mentioned Large-scale Generation Certificates (LGCs) had the biggest year-on-year Q1 improve in each absolute numbers and proportion change with 1.2 million certificates cancelled, nearly 4 instances the earlier Q1 file from 2021.
The variety of Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs), surrendered within the first quarter was additionally up, with 283,000 ACCUs voluntarily cancelled within the quarter, a rise of 62% on the identical time final yr.
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